Are you ready for round two?
In times of economic uncertainty, volatility undermines long-term planning and strategic clarity. That’s precisely what happened during the US-China tariff wars between 2018 and 2019, when global trade became a moving target and companies across sectors often delayed major strategic hiring decisions while reassessing the shape of their future operations. The COVID pandemic overshadowed this period of instability, however there are learnings from this time that are particularly relevant today.
As tariff tensions have re-emerged, businesses, particularly mid-market and large corporates, are again delaying, evaluating, and cautiously protecting liquidity. Naturally that has an effect on leadership hiring where, particularly for new and strategic roles, decisions can be delayed or put on hold.
But as we saw during the first wave of trade disruptions, this doesn’t mean leadership talent planning stops. In fact, it’s more important than ever, just approached differently.
From analysing hiring data, consultancy reports, and post-volatility business strategies that were promoted during and after the last trade war, three approaches emerge that keep an organisation moving forwards with its leadership requirements without over committing to a single direction:
- Engaging in structured scenario planning to accelerate future execution
- Investing in internal capability assessment and development
- Deploying interim executives for specific needs or transformation initiatives
This article looks at why each matters, what’s changed this time around, and examples of how organisations are applying them right now.
1. Scenario Planning to Accelerate Execution
Why It Works
When a business is unsure about which strategic path to take: new markets, vertical integration, digitisation, product diversification – it also becomes unsure about what kind of leadership will be needed. That’s why scenario planning becomes essential: it allows leadership and talent teams to explore multiple futures, and model what skills, capabilities, and leadership profiles each path would require.
In 2018–2019, many businesses made painful missteps by not doing this. They hired for a strategy that was later abandoned. They committed to new leadership roles built around now-defunct business models. Those who did scenario plan, particularly in logistics, energy, and FMCG, made smarter hires, or deferred them entirely until the picture became clearer.
Current Examples
- A FTSE-listed manufacturer is mapping leadership capability across four different countries, should they decide to invest in alternative manufacturing locations
- A consumer products businesses is modelling leadership needs for three global expansion scenarios, each with different talent availability and cost considerations
- A global travel operator is building “people readiness maps” for various M&A strategies to identify the senior leadership impacts of each route
What’s Different This Time
There have been big improvements in the last five years in speed and accuracy for assembling candidate market data. In 2018, even the most sophisticated businesses struggled to model and present leadership capability across geographies or competitor sets in a timely, cost-efficient way. That’s changed. AI-driven talent mapping tools, like MapX, the system we built at Savannah, allow for:
- Real-time analysis of available leadership talent for specific capabilities
- Leadership market analysis across global regions
- Competitor leadership moves and organisation design
- Internal versus external comparisons for succession planning and benchmarking
This allows HR and strategy leaders to collaborate with a shared language: “If we pursue X strategy, the leadership options we will have, both internally and externally, look like Y. This will be easier/harder to hire from externally/internally so we should prioritise accordingly.” That alignment wasn’t possible in the last tariff cycle whereas now it’s a core advantage.
2. Internal Capability Assessment: Developing & Retaining Top Talent
Why It Works
When the market becomes unpredictable it’s even more important to thoroughly review your internal talent and evaluate successor strength and depth against future business requirements.
Faced with economic uncertainty, businesses are:
- Conducting deeper leadership capability assessments
- Refreshing their succession pipelines
- Reviewing their learning and development frameworks to upskill future leaders
Historically, this approach has been popular in times of instability. LinkedIn’s 2023 Future of Recruiting report highlighted how internal mobility surged during 2022 with leadership promotions from within increasing by 20% in mid-sized firms and by 15% across the FTSE 250 year-on-year.
Current examples
- A professional services business restructuring the regions overseen by their general managers to better group countries based on shared market dynamics and create clearer and simpler role profiles and objectives to lead each one.
- A global consumer business evaluating its senior leadership team ahead of potential restructuring to understand risk for each role, successor depth and difficulty to hire if an external hire was required.
- A financial services business running structured L&D programmes for middle managers to prepare them for senior leadership within 12–24 months
What’s Different This Time
The main evolution is data visibility. Thanks to better integration across HRIS platforms like Workday and SAP SuccessFactors, HR teams now have richer data on internal performance, engagement, and progression. This allows talent functions to:
- Cross-compare leaders by capability clusters
- Model succession scenarios based on likely turnover
- Identify future skill requirements and plan for how to buy or build these skills in the future
Yet, the success of this strategy still relies on discipline. As one CHRO of a telecoms giant put it recently: “The data’s all there, but if the wider organisation doesn’t know how to incorporate it into talent reviews and talent planning, it’s useless.”
3. Interim Executives: Agile Leadership for Times of Uncertainty
Why It Works
When it is difficult to predict whether a permanent leadership hire is required medium to long-term but there is still a current leadership gap to plug, interim managers offer strategic agility and flexibility. These professionals, often ex C-suite, functional heads, or specialists in transformation, can be quickly deployed to deliver against a specific brief, whether that’s launching an ERP system upgrade, handling regulatory changes, or stabilising a distressed asset. For example. during the 2018–19 tariff disruption, interim CFOs, Chief Supply Chain Officers and operations leads played a critical role in helping firms navigate cost restructures, pricing strategy, and vendor diversification.
Again, historically we have seen an increase in these activities during turbulent times. In a 2023 survey by LinkedIn Talent Solutions, UK and US businesses reported a 26% year-on-year increase in contract and interim leadership roles, driven by economic caution and the need for short-term impact without long-term overheads. CFO Dive also found in a 2022 survey that 83% of finance leaders in corporates with over £100m in turnover were favouring flexible leadership models vs permanent.
As Stephen Lochhead, Senior VP of Global Talent Acquisition at Expedia Group, highlighted “if you don’t have a decent mix of [contract] talent, you’ll be more risk-exposed to whatever the future brings — good and bad. You need some elasticity so you can flex up or down as needed.”
Current examples
- A logistics business who is using an interim COO to redesign supply networks in light of new tariff boundaries
- Private equity-backed firms bringing in interim CFOs to restructure finance operations in preparation for funding rounds or exits
- Energy and infrastructure groups hiring interim programme directors to deliver time-bound transformations linked to regulatory deadlines or ESG reporting shifts
What’s Different This Time
In the UK, IR35 regulation has forced a structural rethink of interim engagements. While some see this as a barrier, savvy businesses are navigating it effectively via fixed-term contracts, inside-IR35 roles, or deliverable-based consultancy arrangements. Any good quality Interim provider can provide guidance and options on this. The flexibility and strategic value of interims remains intact, it just requires a little bit more planning.
Final Thought: From Volatility to Vision
Leadership hiring may be slower in times of uncertainty, but talent strategy shouldn’t be. The businesses that came through Tariff Wars 1.0 strongest were the ones that planned effectively while keeping agility and flexibility in their leadership capabilities.
They used interim executives to inject capability in specific areas. They strengthened internal pathways and succession. And they did the best scenario planning they could to be prepared for whatever outcome would make the most sense.
The landscape in 2025 is different, more complex in some ways, but also more intelligent. With sharper tools and deeper organisational memory from the COVID and tariff shocks, businesses are more resilient and more strategic.
The lesson is clear: in uncertain times, don’t stand still. Instead think more creatively and intelligently about leadership and talent requirements as that is what will define the winners of this cycle.
